Geopolitical Conflicts.

International aviation under pressure: Geopolitical tensions are rising worldwide – with direct consequences for civil air travel. Flight routes are becoming less secure, detours longer, and costs higher. Airlines must adapt to an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment.

Detours through crises: Geopolitical conflicts and their impact on global air travel

Geopolitical conflicts have a direct impact on global aviation. This is especially noticeable on routes between Europe and Asia. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian and Ukrainian airspace has been closed to many Western airlines. The formerly used northern routes – such as those over Siberia – are no longer available. As a result, airlines must take longer routes through Central Asia, the Middle East, or South Asia.

These geopolitically driven detours significantly increase flight distances, which in turn raises both flight times and operational costs. For example, flights to Tokyo now go via the Caspian Sea, Turkey, and Georgia, extending the journey by up to 1,500 kilometers and adding around two hours of flight time.

This development also brings logistical challenges – particularly in the scheduling of crews and aircraft.

Competition under pressure: China’s advantage and Europe’s challenge

In addition to economic disadvantages, structural competitive distortions are emerging: while Western airlines must comply with sanctions, Chinese, Indian, or Arab carriers continue to use direct routes through Russian airspace. This saves time, lowers costs – and provides a clear market advantage on lucrative long-haul routes.

Regional tensions increase operational volatility

Even outside Europe, geopolitical tensions affect route planning. In the Gulf region and the Middle East – for example, in Iran, Iraq, Syria, or Israel – airlines often avoid entire airspaces at short notice when conflicts escalate. Flights are canceled or rerouted. This results in added strain and significant uncertainty in operational planning.

How severely conflicts can affect civil aviation was tragically illustrated by the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in December 2024. On its way from Baku to Grozny, the aircraft crashed over the Caspian Sea. The United States believes a misfire from Russian air defense was responsible. The incident highlights how dangerous proximity to active conflict zones has become for civil aviation.

As more conflict zones emerge or expand, fewer usable airspaces remain. As a result, international aviation becomes more vulnerable, slower – and significantly more expensive.

Electronic threats: Jamming and Spoofing in conflict zones

In addition to closed airspaces, targeted electronic attacks also pose threats to aviation safety. Particularly dangerous are so-called jamming (signal interference) and spoofing (manipulation of GPS data) attacks. These incidents are increasingly occurring near active conflict regions – such as in Eastern Europe or the Middle East. Aircraft can be thrown off course and accidentally enter military-restricted zones. The aviation industry is responding with new navigation systems, redundancy technologies, and updated training approaches.

Geopolitical conflicts worsen the situation for European airlines

The situation is especially complex for European airlines: in addition to geopolitical tensions, rising taxes, strict environmental regulations, and bureaucratic hurdles are also burdensome. While non-European providers – such as those from China and Saudi Arabia – can often act more flexibly, German carriers are coming under increasing pressure. Some are already relocating parts of their operations abroad – to become more resilient and to compete more effectively on a global scale.

Geopolitical conflicts, such as those currently developing in Taiwan, the South China Sea, or Yemen, will continue to shape global aviation in 2025. The industry must strengthen its resilience and develop global strategies to withstand the challenges of international politics.